The Brutal Schedule Myth

2020 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Seahawks
Pick Results: NE: 49.5% at SEA: 50.5%
Sun
Sep 20th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
We keep hearing this assumption that the patriots have a brutal schedule this year and had an easy schedule last year.
Aside from the fact that teams change a lot year to year so what looks like a tough or easy game before the season turns out to be different. But let’s break it down and see how much more difficult this years schedule seems, as of now.

9 opponents are exactly the same
6 division games
Kc
Baltimore
Houston

the other 7 are crossover with NFC and AFCW vs AFCN
* people can differ on these comparisons but they are close and other than “that bad team got a lot better” kind of dope the comparisons are all reasonable.

In the afc
Pitt Cle Cin. Vs LA LV DENVER (all had losing records last year)
You really can’t call that harder.

So NFCE vs NFCW
philly vs Seattle is close to a wash
Dallas vs Rams is a wash
Giants vs Arizona is essentially a wash

so we play the 49ers instead of the redskins.




the schedule is the same with one game changing from weak opponent to strong opponent.
 

borg

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Hmmmmmn.....

No mention of no Brady
No mention that vet LBs replaced by rookies

Ring6 thesis grade D+
 
Last edited:

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Hmmmmmn.....

No mention of no Brady
No mention that vet LBs replaced by rookies

Brady6 thesis grade D+
What does that have to do with the strength of the schedule?

but since you asked, go ahead and look at 2019 and tell me which of the 12 wins would have been losses with an average QB.
Winovich and Bentley aren’t rookies.

but again this is about the strength of the schedule not the strength of the patriots.
Your grading system flunks.
 

sb1

Pro Bowl Player
The tough part of the schedule isn’t as much the opponents as it is the home/away split. Specifically @ Seattle, @ Chargers, @Rams and @ Chiefs. None of those will be easy road opponents.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
The tough part of the schedule isn’t as much the opponents as it is the home/away split. Specifically @ Seattle, @ Chargers, @Rams and @ Chiefs. None of those will be easy road opponents.
Chargers stink.

the corresponding road games last year were ravens, eagles, Texans, Bengals. Pretty similar
Ravens - chiefs
Texans - Seattle
Eagles. - Rams
Chargers - bengals
 

aluminum seats

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
teams change a lot year to year so what looks like a tough or easy game before the season turns out to be different
This is a big part of it for sure. Sportsbooks make a fortune off over/under win totals right before the season starts, never mind trying to gauge teams in May. And they evolve throughout the year, and even week to week.
 

One-If-By-Sea

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
The tough part of the schedule isn’t as much the opponents as it is the home/away split. Specifically @ Seattle, @ Chargers, @Rams and @ Chiefs. None of those will be easy road opponents.
Agreed. Let's say we lose all 4 of those games and 2 at home for a 10-6 record. And if we win one of those games it is 11-5. Not 8-8 or 6-10.
 

Ring 6

PatsFans.com Wall of Fame Member
Still tough road environments for a rookie QB. 0-4 wouldn’t surprise me at all.
How is LA a tough road environment? It’s the worst most disinterested fan base in the league.
 
Last edited:

Brandon_Cox

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Sportsbooks make a fortune off over/under win totals right before the season starts.
The handle for the season over/unders is nowhere as high as you perceive it to be. It's definitely true that the public (including me) loves to bet them. Heck, I used to fly out to Vegas in late August to bet the Patriots over, bet future games and sign my friends up for the Super Contest.

But the sharps, betting syndicates, quants, etc rarely if ever bet the over/unders for one simple reason: they don't want to tie up any part of their bankrolls for bets that will take around 4 months to resolve.
 
Last edited:

NYCPATS4LIFE

In the Starting Line-Up
How is LA a tough road environment? It’s the worst most disinterested fan base in the league.
I would take the chargers offense over ours right now. Defense will be much better with the return of derwin james and they added chris harris jr.
 

PlainOldEd

In the Starting Line-Up
Hmmmmmn.....

No mention of no Brady
No mention that vet LBs replaced by rookies

Ring6 thesis grade D+
This is a perfect example of the duchebaggery I was referring to in the Stidham thread

The tough part of the schedule isn’t as much the opponents as it is the home/away split. Specifically @ Seattle, @ Chargers, @Rams and @ Chiefs. None of those will be easy road opponents.
This is a good example of a respectful contrary opinion.
 
Top