Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
if a team scores after the opponent s fail a 4 down try do the points count as legit?
The WSJ table was based on expected points immediately before and after the play. What actually happened doesn't factor into it.if a team scores after the opponent s fail a 4 down try do the points count as legit?
Sometimes going for it on 4th down on your own 40 could help kickstart a longer drive. However, if you are stopped you not only give the opponent great field position with only 5-10 yards needed for a field goal, but you also give their defense a huge jolt of momentum.teams should go for 4th and 1 more, even in their territory (around the 40yd)
It's not that he gets better. It's that they are better.This actually makes sense of the "keep Brady off the field" meme. When I first heard it it made no sense because each team gets (roughly) the same number of possessions. But your point makes it valid, as does the notion that Brady generally gets better as the game progresses and he figures out the defense.
Faulk did run past the sticks.We should've punted on 4th and 2... or at least ran faulk past the sticks.
is that not what we're talking about?
I agree about running Faulk maybe a yard or two deeper. But he got a lousy spot. He had the first down but the Patriots got screwed on the spot. I agree with one of the earlier posters who said it was the right call by BB. It was unconventional and I had never seen it before in that situation, certainly not by the Patriots. But the defense was gassed and had shown no signs of stopping Manning the previous couple of possessions. The game was over if the ball was spotted correctly and BB would have been lauded for his ballsy move. Instead most of the country gleefully pegged him as a pompous idiot.We should've punted on 4th and 2... or at least ran faulk past the sticks.
is that not what we're talking about?
They have a number of studies every Sunday showing how the team [I believe the Pats are outstanding this year] who wins the field position battle in a tough game wins. Isolating one factor is not a scientific way of analyzing.I had thought that studies uniformly showed that teams should nearly always go for it on 4th down. I'd said earlier that the Jaguars are one of the few teams the Patriots have faced this season that isn't going to beat themselves with moronic coaching errors. (It's really kind of ludicrous how strategically incompetent so many NFL head coaches are. Just basic things - managing time outs, running more when up, changing strategy in response to what the other team does - are just far beyond what most coaches are capable of).
The fact that the Jags are going for it on 4th plays into what I was saying about the profound threat the Jags and their coaching poses.
One point also is that the studies I've seen are based on just analysis of points and field position etc. But if you factor in the extra fatigue on the defense that occurs because you go for it on 4th down, then it seems like teams should nearly always do it or at least do it way more often than they do now.
Are there are any studies that say teams shouldn't go for it on 4th more?
The results I looked at, this was years ago, seemed very clearcut as these things go. My understanding is that reason teams don't is that their fans, owners, and GMs tend not to be comfortable with statistical reasoning, and that coaches do the wrong thing purely to avoid criticism by the innumerate.
But like I say I haven't looked in the matter in years. Maybe there are more recent studies.
In fact, Patriots opponents have started in their own end of the field for 94 consecutive drives, the longest such streak in the NFL in the last 25 years.
The last time a Patriots opponent started on New England’s side of the 50-yard line was in the first quarter of a Week 3 matchup against the Texans.
Patriots winning field position battle at historic rateOnly two opponent drives have started on the Patriots’ side of the field all season.
For comparison, the Patriots have started 17 drives in opponents’ territory this season.