Patriots - Seahawks, Who Has the Razor's Edge? Super Bowl Key Matchups
The pretenders are gone and the NFL is down to two. And the two best teams in the league, the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks in Glendale, Arizona in Super Bowl XLIX.
The Patriots look for their fourth Super Bowl win in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era which would tie Brady with Terry Bradshaw and his boyhood idol in Super Bowl victories. A fourth ring would already cement a Hall of Fame legacy that began back in the 2001 season.
The Seahawks look to become the first team since the 2003-2004 Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Pete Carroll with a win on Sunday would be the first coach in history that would have multiple championships at both the college and professional level.
The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m.
The Patriots (14-4), the #1 seed in the AFC, defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round 35-31and then blasted the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship Game.
The Seahawks (14-4), the #1 seed in the NFC, defeated the Carolina Panthers in the Divisonal Round 31-17 and then with an epic comeback downed the Green Bay Packers 28-22 in the NFC Championship Game.
Here is a look at the PatsFans.com key matchups and who holds the “Razor’s Edge”:
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Patriots RBs vs Seahawks Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Seahawks
The Seahawks finished the season as the #3 rush defense in the NFL averaging only 81.5 yards per game allowed. They are fast, athletic and flow to the ball excellently. The front four of Kevin Williams, Michael Bennett, Tony McDaniel and Cliff Avril are solid. Seattle’s defense has been buoyed since the return of LB Bobby Wagner and have allowed only 10 points-per-game during their current 8-game winning streak.
The Patriots running game will get a boost from the return of center Bryan Stork this week and will have to find some consistent room for LaGarrette Blount to move in. After gaining only 14 yards on the ground against Baltimore, the Patriots rolled for 177 against Indianapolis with Blount getting 148 yards on carries.
This will be tough sledding for the Patriots but not an unwinnable battle. Seattle has allowed 132 yards against Carolina and 135 more against the Packers. Look for the Patriots to attack the middle left side of the Seattle defense. Running behind Nate Solder and Dan Connolly, this is a matchup the offense is going to have to win if the passing game is going to be successful.
Patriots WRs vs Seahawks Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
Seattle boasts the #1 defense in the NFL in both points and in pass defense allowing only 185.6 yards per game. They’re good at getting after the QB with pressure from the front four as well as LB Bruce Irvin.
But it is the secondary where Seattle has its strength, possessing the deepest unit in the NFL. Cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Brian Maxwell with Jeremy Lane in the slot along with safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are as talented a group that the Patriots have seen all season. They possess the ability to jam the receivers at the line of scrimmage and take away the short passing game and force the opponent to throwing deep where their coverage skills easily take that away.
New England’s passing attack is deep with QB Tom Brady having three receivers, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and tight end Rob Gronkowski all having over 1000 yards from scrimmage this season including the playoffs. The Patriots can add in WR Danny Amendola and RB Shane Vereen out of the backfield as well as TE Tim Wright in the red zone (6TDs), when the field gets shortened.
New England will need that depth on Sunday, as much like the book is beating the Patriots secondary with third and fourth options; they’ll need those to defeat Seattle. Look for them to spread out the Seattle defense in an attempt to slow down the pass rush and have Tom Brady get the ball out quickly. Julian Edelman will have to win the one-on-one battles underneath as the Seahawks will attempt to take away those short crosses and deny the yards after catch.
The key matchup will be Chancellor the big 6’3, 232 lb wrecking ball of a safety on TE Rob Gronkowski who has been un-coverable all season. Look for Chancellor to jam Gronk at the line of scrimmage and try to disrupt the timing of the passing game.
The “X-Factor” for the Patriots passing game could be Vereen out of the backfield. Forget the screens and the bubble screens, the Seahawks are very good at sniffing them out and flowing to the ball. But Vereen spread wide, isolated on a linebacker is a matchup the Patriots can win.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Seattle RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Seahawks
Here is the matchup that will ultimately decide this game. Seattle led the league with 172.6 yards per game in 2014 and the combination of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson rushed for more than 2150 yards during the regular season. They’ve since added 263 more in the playoffs. The Seattle zone blocking scheme stretches defenses horizontally and leaves gaps for the runners to run thru. But the dangerous Wilson running the zone read option is where New England will have to remain disciplined.
In the zone read, Wilson will line up in the shotgun; he’ll put the ball in Lynch’s hands and read the reaction of the defensive end. If the end crashes down, he’ll pull the ball back and run to the edge where he’ll have a clear path. If the end plays straight up, he’ll give the ball to Lynch. Lynch led the league in yards after contact this season and gets stronger after halftime.
The Patriots will have to bring their big-boy pants in this one and Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch will be tested as well as DEs Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich who have to set the edge. It will be up to the linebackers, Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins to not only support the running game against Lynch but keep Wilson contained from gashing them on the outside.
The Patriots have traditionally done well against Lynch and in the 2012 meeting in Seattle held the big man to just 41 yards on 15 carries. But this is a whole different ball of wax this time around. The zone blocking scheme run by the Jets and Miami has given the Patriots problems this year, and the two-headed monster of Lynch and Wilson will be a tough matchup.
Seattle WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Seattle’s passing game averaged only 203 yards per game in 2014 but a large part of that had to do with how successful the running game has been. However, the losses of Percy Harvin and Golden Tate did take away from their versatility. Russell Wilson is capable of extending plays with his feet and throws an excellent deep ball. His main wide receivers consist of Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse with tight end Luke Wilson.
While much, perhaps too much was made over Wilson’s four interception performance against Green Bay, it is worthy to note that he threw only seven picks all season. Don’t expect a repeat performance anytime soon.
However, when looking at New England’s secondary, they are perhaps the best man coverage unit in the league with Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner with Kyle Arrington in the slot. They have the ability to neutralize Baldwin with Revis and Devin McCourty with over-the-top safety help can make the Seattle passing game one dimensional.
The key from a Patriots standpoint is containing Wilson in the pocket and not allowing him to break out and make plays with his feet. A key to watch is the third option, Wilson on safety Pat Chung.
Special Teams/Prediction
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Patriots
This will be a key area to watch as the Patriots STs units have been outstanding. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski had a Pro-Bowl season and Ryan Allen posted a 46.4 punting average. The coverage units are solid and the kick return game with Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman has been explosive. Both have been key thus far in the playoffs with Edelman averaging 19.3 yards per return on punts and Amendola 24.1 on kickoffs. The Patriots have blocked four kicks this season and returned two of them for touchdowns.
Seattle is solid in the kicking game with kicker Steven Hauschka and punter Jon Ryan. Ryan averaged 44.1 yards per punt in 2014. Ryan in the 2012 matchup it should be noted averaged 60 yards per punt. The return game especially the punt return game hasn’t been particularly dynamic and the coverage units have been so-so in the punting game as well.
In a closely matched Super Bowl game, STs may indeed decide the difference, and the Patriots get the slight advantage here with Edelman and Amendola in the return game. They have one of the best Special teams units in the NFL.
Prediction:
This one should be worthy of the name Super Bowl as the two best teams in the league duke it out for the title. Despite all the talk about the quarterbacks, this one may be decided on who runs the football more effectively on Sunday.
Lynch and Wilson are going to get their yards; there is no way that you’ll shut them down. The key from a Patriots perspective is to limit their effectiveness and force them into obvious third down passing situations.
On offense, the Patriots will probably look to speed things up once they get a first down during their possessions. They’ll attempt to spread out the defense and get the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly. Unlike last season’s Super Bowl, the Patriots receivers can beat the jam at the line of scrimmage and make plays in contested spaces.
Back in August I predicted a Seattle repeat as Super Bowl champs. They are top to bottom the best team in the league with New England a close second. However, with the events unfolding this past week, including the second Bill Belichick press conference, this New England team will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder.
But I haven’t liked the matchups with Wilson and Lynch in the running game and in a close, close game, the Seahawks repeat with a late score. Seattle 23-20.
Patriots Player to Watch- Tom Brady
Brady is in the spotlight and will be under the most pressure this Sunday. It has been 10 years since the Pats last won the Super Bowl and Brady will be attempting to add that elusive fourth ring to his collection.
He’ll also be looking to become the QB with the longest sustained streak of excellence between their first title (2001), and their last, which will be 13 years. The longest current streak also belongs to Joe Montana with nine.
Brady will be going against the #1 defense in the NFL. If he wins this Sunday, he will have earned this one and will further cement his legacy as one of the best ever to play the position.
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