The Hilton at Revis Island is Closed...Luck Must Look Elsewhere This Week
When the Patriots face off against the Colts on Sunday night in the AFC Championship Game, they’ll be facing a familiar nemesis with Indianapolis and a recent one as well. The Patriots and Colts will be meeting for the third time since January of last year.
But the familiarity will be tinged with a bit of the unknown this time around. The Colts offense still goes thru Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton but down the stretch, Luck has been increasingly going to his secondary receivers, a very important factor in this game.
Conventional wisdom suggests that to beat New England, one must get away from Darrelle Revis and win with beating the others in the Patriots secondary by using their secondary receivers. Aaron Rodgers during the game in Lambeau provided that bit of intelligence for opposing game planners and it may be true again.
Different Matchup This Time: In the first matchup in November, the Patriots put Revis on Reggie Wayne and the speedy Kyle Arrington on Hilton. I would expect that to change on Sunday. Revis will probably draw Hilton and history shows, Luck likes to move the ball downfield to Hilton, sometimes even force it to him. If that is the case, Revis, who is the Pats best coverage player, could be in a position to make a pick or two.
Quarterbacks throwing at Revis haven’t had much success, completing only 44.3 percent of their passes (35-79), for 545 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. Revis has the ability to slow down Hilton and force the issue.
Wayne has been hobbled by a knee injury and is nowhere near 100 percent. Arrington would then draw either him or Donte Moncrief, who has come on recently. Brandon Browner would cover Hakeem Nicks. The Colts tight ends will undoubtedly see a lot of action this time. Coby Fleener had a big game in November with seven catches for 144 yards against mainly Brandon Browner but Dwayne Allen, who was hurt early in that game will be available.
Allen is an interesting player to keep an eye on this time around. Much less heralded than Fleener who was Luck’s college teammate, he’s an excellent red-zone target and scored on a 3-yard touchdown pass against Denver on Sunday. Luck also used Dan Herron out of the backfield more and he caught eight passes for 32 yards at Mile High.
Running Game Could Be a Factor: Again, the Colts are a different team this time as running back Ahmad Bradshaw is now on IR and Trent Richardson was a healthy inactive scratch last week. Instead the Colts relied on Boom Herron and Zurlon Tipton to get the job done.
Herron carried 21 times for 63 yards which aren’t eye-popping numbers but the Colts final scoring drive where they held the ball for over minutes was a testament that Herron and Tipton are very trusted in the offense.
Herron and Tipton touched the ball on nine of the Colts 12 plays on the scoring drive that put the game away when they kicked an Adam Vinatieri field goal to go up 24-13. While the Colts numbers this season aren’t big, (no 100 yard rushers), they are getting better balance out of the running game and can be looked to on Sunday to try to keep the Patriots defense off-balance by continuing to run the ball.
Pass Protection/Pash Rush Key: A big key for this week’s game and imperative for Luck in finding his secondary receivers is getting the time in the pocket. He’ll either have to get very good protection as he did in Denver last week or create time by moving around and making plays with his feet.
Aaron Rodgers did both in the Green Bay game, Luck’s offensive line which has been patched together has been very good the past few weeks and may be starting to gel which is good news for Coach Chuck Pagano. The Colts neutralized the potent pass rush of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware of Denver's and that should give New England pause.
We talked about, from a Patriots perspective the lack of pass rush last week and the need to improve there here: New England will have to pressure Luck and just as importantly, contain him in the pocket. He throws on the run extremely well and that is the last thing Matt Patricia and Bill Belichick want to see.
This promises to be a great football game, while the Patriots have had their way with Andrew Luck and the Colts in the last three matchups (20+ point wins), this one should be much closer. But Luck will have to find his other receivers other than Hilton to win this time around.
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