Patriots - Ravens, Who Has the Razor's Edge, Key Matchups
 The Patriots will be looking for big games from both Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in their playoff matchup with the Ravens. (USA TODAY Images) |
The New England Patriots take on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Playoffs on Saturday afternoon in Foxboro. The game will be televised by NBC and the kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Saturday’s meeting will be the third playoff meeting between the two teams in the past four years.
The Patriots (12-4) had a bye last week as a result of being the AFC’s #1 seed….I think. Because it is confusing a bit, because of all the hype I’ve been reading concerning this game, it has sounded like the Patriots were the #6 seed and just skinned into the playoffs.
The Ravens (11-6) had a dominating performance against their division rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers, defeating them 30-17 on the road at Heinz Field in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Joe Flacco passed for two touchdowns and 259 yards and the defense sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times.
Series History:
The Patriots and Ravens as we mentioned before are meeting in the playoffs for the third time in four years. And has anyone heard …at least a million times in the past week that the Ravens own a 2-1 record against New England in the playoffs and all of those games have been in Foxboro? In case you’ve been in Bora Bora on vacation, some of the “story lines” include:
“The Ravens have their number”, “the Ravens aren’t afraid of playing in Foxboro (my favorite)”, “Tom Brady is afraid of Terrell Suggs”, “Joe Flacco is a better QB than Tom Brady”, “Baltimore has been here before” ….leave any out?
Bottom line is the teams have met 11 times in their history. New England owns an 8-3 overall advantage. In the last six games, the teams have split evenly 3-3 including a 41-7 New England win in December 2013, the last time the two teams met….which coincidentally no one is talking about this week.
So, what does it all mean? Nothing. Both teams are different since they last met and we’re looking at completely different rosters. History lesson over.
Here is a look at some of the PatsFans.com key matchups and who holds the “Razor’s Edge” in this week’s game.
 Brandon LaFell should be in-line for a big part of the game plan on Saturday. (USA TODAY Images) |
Patriots RBs vs Ravens Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Ravens
Baltimore’s run defense in 2014 has been excellent, holding opponents to just 88.3 yards per game. Anchored in the middle by Haloti Ngata, who fresh for a playoff run after serving a four-game suspension for PEDs, the middle of the Ravens run defense is outstanding. They rank fourth in the league against the run bolstered with excellent linebacker play especially by rookie C.J. Mosley in run support. They haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher in 27 games.
The Patriots have a running back by committee approach with LaGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen. Since losing Stevan Ridley to a season ending ACL tear, no one has really stepped into the role of a feature back.
It is going to be tough for the Patriots to run, rookie center Bryan Stork will have his hands full with Ngata and the Patriots like to have balance in the offense which opens up play action passing. On Saturday look for the Pats to use a strategy from the meeting of the teams last season.
They’ll look to spread out the defense and run right at Suggs on the perimeter, trying to catch him being aggressive coming off the edge. Blount was effective doing that in Baltimore and also look for some traps inside with Gray. The key is to stay patient with the running game and not become one dimensional.
Patriots WRs vs Ravens Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
In a recent All-22 piece on PatsFans.com we looked at ways the Patriots offense can attack the Ravens defense. The Patriots passing offense started off slowly in the first quarter of the season. Then improved offensive line play, the return of health of Rob Gronkowski, and the integration of Brandon LaFell into the offense sparked them to light it up for the next eight games.
The final month of the season, the passing offense sputtered a bit. Injuries at the offensive line and to Julian Edelman caused some concern as the team hasn’t been the same. The bye week came at a perfect time allowing all of those injured players to get healthy (as close as one can be in January), but concerns about the OL persist.
Baltimore’s secondary has been decimated by injury especially at the cornerback position with five players ending up on IR. DC Dean Pees has been forced to use seven different corners this season. But they’ve covered for that weakness by having an outstanding pass rush. Baltimore had 49 sacks on the season led by bookend edge rushers Elvis Dumervil 17 sacks, and Suggs 12. Ngata is very good at collapsing the pocket from the interior.
As noted above, look for the Patriots to opt for a similar game plan as they had against Detroit. Spread out the defense, with more of a 2WR, 2 TE look and hit some quick passes with Brady getting the ball out quickly to negate the Ravens pass rush. This, from a New England perspective gives them the best chance to have a successful day.
This lineup gives the Patriots something they haven’t had in previous matchups with Baltimore, size and physicality with Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell and TE Tim Wright with Julian Edelman being the quicker underneath option.
 No one has had a bigger impact on the Patriots defensive play in 2014 than Darrelle Revis, who will be tasked with putting a blanket over the Ravens passing game. (USA TODAY Images) |
Ravens RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Ravens
Justin Forsett had to be one of the biggest surprises in the league this season. He stepped into the lead back role and gave the Ravens excellent production in the running game, 1266 yards, a gaudy 5.4 yard average and eight rushing touchdowns. The Ravens as a team were the 8th best rushing team in the league at 126.2 yards per game. When healthy their offensive line is one of the better units in the league.
The Patriots had its issues with stopping the run, especially early in the season. But once Vince Wilfork got back to being himself, the run defense stiffened. They were bolstered by the signing of Alan Branch and the return from IR of Sealver Siliga. During the second half of the season, the Patriots allowed an average of only 79 yards rushing per game. The defense was bolstered by outstanding play by LB Dont’a Hightower who slid into the middle after Jerod Mayo went on IR.
The Patriots are well versed in the zone-blocking schemes used by OC Gary Kubiak, the key is to protect the cut-back lanes and set the edge, something they’ve been doing much better at in the last eight games. Look for the Patriots to use some heavier packages in this one as they try to limit Forsett and make the Ravens more one-dimensional. The battle in the trenches will be key here, as the Ravens should have their offensive line intact for this one.
Ravens WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Baltimore has a good passing game, Joe Flacco threw for a career high 3966 yards with 27 touchdowns in 2014. The team signed the speedy, mercurial Steve Smith and the former Carolina Panther turned back the clocks and put together a solid season with 79 catches, 1065 yards and six touchdowns. Flacco also has Torrey Smith (49,767, 11TDs), TE Owen Daniels and Forsett out of the backfield.
The offensive line has done a very good job at protection, allowing only 19 sacks on the season and Flacco is good at avoiding the pass rush and is underrated at moving around the pocket and using his feet to make plays.
The Patriots secondary was bolstered by the off-season signing of both Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and have been tested by some of the more prolific passing offenses in the league. With the return of a healthy Kyle Arrington as the nickel corner he will be leaned upon heavily in this one.
The Patriots will be looking to limit the chunk plays down the field that the Ravens like to do and limit the penalties; no one has drawn more flags for pass interference than Torrey Smith. The pass rush, has been somewhat inconsistent this season, will have to step up. Rob Ninkovich, Akeem Ayers and Chandler Jones who missed a large amount of time this season will have to pressure Flacco and not give him all day to throw. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots attempt to cover the Ravens receivers. Will Revis draw Steve Smith or Torrey and let the speedier Kyle Arrington cover Steve Smith? Devin McCourty will be a key player here as the Ravens like to take deep shots down the field and he’ll be the guy who has to make plays in centerfield.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Ravens have a very solid Special Teams unit, no surprise since HC John Harbaugh started his career there. Justin Tucker is normally a very accurate kicker but had some issues beyond 50+ yards in the FG department going only 4-9. Punter Sam Koch has an outstanding 47.4 average. The coverage units are solid and KR Jacoby Jones is a threat to go to the house with a stellar 30.6 yard average. With cold temps on Saturday, kickoffs probably won’t carry as far, something to keep in mind.
The Patriots have arguably the best Special Teams unit in the playoffs; their play has been outstanding in 2014. They’ve blocked four kicks, two of which have been returned for touchdowns. The coverage units have been solid and the tandem of Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman has been dangerous. They get a slight edge here and that may loom large in a playoff game in January.
 Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare the team for their divisional matchup,something he's been excellent at over the years. (USA TODAY Images) |
Prediction:
This should be a fun game to watch; both teams know each other well and play each other every year. There has been a lot of turnover on each team since they last met in the playoffs but the rivalry hasn’t missed a beat.
Both teams are physical and mentally tough; the key here will be the play in the trenches. Unlike in past seasons where the Patriots were missing Gronkowski, he’ll be healthy and ready in this one. He should open up a lot of room in the passing game for the other players. Look for Brandon LaFell (if he’s at 100%) to have a really big piece of the gameplan.
The Patriots will have to limit Forsett’s effectiveness and rely on Revis to do what he’s done all season, to provide blanket coverage in the secondary. They’ll have to bring pressure up the middle on center Jeremy Zuttah with A-gap pressure from Jamie Collins and Hightower. No excuses in this one. This is a game the Patriots should win, especially at home. Patriots hold serve 27-16
Patriots Player to Watch- Rob Gronkowski
The Gronk hasn’t been in the playoffs for the past two years and is on top of his game after a unanimous All-Pro season where he posted numbers of 82 receptions, 1124 yards and 12 touchdowns. The plan all along since the “taking it slowly at training camp” was to have him ready for a playoff run.
After an outstanding 2014 season, Gronkowski is not only ready but rested, having gotten Week 17 off and after a two-week break, he will want to make his mark on this game. No one has been able to adequately cover him this season and the Ravens, who have been good at covering tight ends this season will have their hands full.
Gronkowski is a true force multiplier and makes those around him better simply by drawing so much attention by opponents. In the red zone, his presence draws defenders to him like moths to a flame and opens up passing lanes to others. Look for the big man to have a big influence on this one.
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