NFL Playoffs Begin, Wildcard Weekend Guide, Predictions
The 2014 NFL regular season is now behind us and the plates have been set at the table that will culminate with a Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona in just a few weeks.
The season has flown by and the top four teams, Seattle and Green Bay in the NFC and New England and Denver in the AFC are home with a bye week to begin the tournament.
This week’s slate of Wild Card games offers some good matchups of some explosive teams, some grinding it out squads, some limping into the finish line as well as fierce rivals. All four games should be competitive and fun to watch.
Here at PatsFans.com, we’ll be watching the AFC games most closely because depending upon who wins this week, will determine who travels to New England on January 10 for the divisional round. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the sole team that cannot be matched up with the Patriots. If they beat Baltimore, they will travel to Denver. If Baltimore wins, it travels to Foxboro.
If Pittsburgh wins, the winner of Cincinnati – Indianapolis will be the Pats next opponent.
But we digress…. There are four games to preview so let’s get right to it.
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) Saturday 4:20 p.m.
One of the head scratchers of the 2014 season has to be how an 11-5 team has to travel to a team that won four less games than them. Perhaps a bigger one is how a team under .500 won their division. The Panthers are the recipient of the gift that was the NFC South this season.
Carolina enters on a four-game winning streak, while the beat-up Cardinals limped into the finish which is why the Panthers are favored in this game at home. The Carolina running game has been rejuvenated, averaging about 195 yards per game during the last five outings.
Cam Newton will be doing a lot of Read Option in this one and relying on bruising RB Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen. Stopping the run was a strength of the Cardinals defense but injuries took their toll down the stretch and the ‘Zona defense was gashed by the run. During the second half of 2014, the Cards allowed 137 yards per game.
They were at their best when playing in their nickel and dime packages, but facing Carolina this week, they should be forced into a more base personnel package. Facing similar teams in Weeks 16-17 (Seattle, SF), they were gashed for 267 and 206 yards respectively on the ground. DC Todd Bowles will have to find an answer to that.
The big question for the Cardinals offense will be if they get back-up QB Drew Stanton back for this one or will they be forced to go with Ryan Lindley. Stanton gives the Cardinals a far better chance of winning as the entire playbook will be at Bruce Arians disposal. Look for them to throw early attacking the intermediate part of the field underneath against Carolina’s Cover 3 defense to set up the running game.
Prediction: While Carolina’s recent surge is impressive it should be noted three of those wins came against the rest of the awful NFC South, the other against the Browns. The key here will be who can get out to an early lead; neither is particularly built to play from behind. If Stanton plays, and we think he does, he’ll do just enough to set up the Cards to fight another day, which means a trip to Seattle next week. Arizona 21-20
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) Saturday 8:15 p.m.
These are two teams that need no introduction to one another, the rivalry is always fierce and both will come out of this one black and blue. But for two teams noted for their defensive play, it is their offenses now that they’ll have to rely on to win and move on.
Pittsburgh’s offense was operating on all cylinders down the stretch, the combination of the short passing game, mixed with the “counter run” and deep shots downfield made them the #2 offense in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger had a tremendous year and has fantastic touch on his deep throws. But their best option, Le’Veon Bell hurt his knee against Cincinnati and it is doubtful, he’ll play in this one. They’ll miss Bell’s running and his 105 catches out of the backfield.
Even still, Roethlisberger who for the first time years is getting very good protection by his offensive line, has a bevy of weapons at his disposal. Antonio Brown had a monstrous 2014, 129 receptions, 1698 yards and 13 TDs. He’s joined by Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant and old stand-by Heath Miller. Baltimore’s secondary is paper thin so they’ll need to pressure Roethlisberger in this one.
Baltimore on offense needs to get RB Justin Forsett going in this one with some of their stretch run formations. If they can do that, it will negate the Steelers pass rush and open things up for Joe Flacco. He has Steve Smith, Torrey Smith and TE Owen Daniels as well as Forsett in the passing game.
If Forsett can get untracked against a Pittsburgh defense that is hurting right now and missing the always solid Brett Keisel, it will open up some play action and allow Flacco to take some shots of his own down the field.
Prediction: These two teams know (and dislike) each other well. They meet twice a year and each game in 2014 was dominated by the home team. Baltimore on a short week at home during Week 2 dominated the Steelers 26-6. But Pittsburgh turned the tables and Roethlisberger had a huge second half at home in Week 9 leading the Steelers to a 43-22 rout.
Baltimore has to get pressure by Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs on Roethlisberger in this one. The defense isn't quite the same as in years past but they are still stout against the run and can get after the QB.
Look for Todd Haley to slide Brown over in the slot and spread out the Ravens defense in this one, especially with Bell unable to go. The Ravens secondary won’t be able to handle the depth of the passing game of Pittsburgh and although Flacco will keep it close for a while, Pittsburgh will move on to Denver next week. Steelers 31-20
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5) Sunday 1 p.m.
These two teams met in October with the Colts destroying the Bengals 27-0 in Indianapolis as the Colts defense held Cincinnati to 135 yards total in that game. The Bengals defense was likewise beat up in that one and they were missing a sizable chunk of their core especially the linebackers.
The Colts don’t rush the ball well, so this one is on Andrew Luck to get it done. He threw for 4761 yards and 40 TDs in 2014 so the Colts can generate plenty in the passing game. Luck has T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and TE Coby Fleener as his primary weapons. Luck is sometimes prone to mistakes and he will make bad decisions at times and force the ball into tight windows as his 16 interceptions will attest to.
Cincinnati will need to get a big day out of their very inconsistent pass rush notably Carlos Dunlap at DE. Something that they didn’t do in the earlier meeting was bring their noted “Double A-Gap” blitz, and they’ll be well served to show that early and often in this one to disrupt the timing of Luck’s passing.
Cincinnati has a nice two-headed running attack of Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard who gained over 1800 yards rushing between them. And the running game is the Colts Achilles Heel. The Bengals best bet in this one is to control the clock and tempo by mixing in the running game along with some controlled passing by Andy Dalton.
Dalton is another QB prone to make mistakes and by taking the onus off of him and by leaning on the run, they get to slow down the blitzes of Indy and make play action passing a much bigger part of the game. Mohammed Sanu and Jermaine Gresham are going to have to step up in this one if the Bengals are to advance.
Prediction: This one will be much closer this time, the key here is to limit mistakes, the Bengals are prone to making some really bone-headed ones at times. Cincy’s running game should be able to run much better this time against the Indy defense. That will allow the Bengals to move A.J. Green around a bit and take some shots down the field in play action.
If the Colts offense is held on the sidelines, that is the best defense that the Bengals can muster. It may force Luck to try to do too much with some limited chances with the ball. This one can go either way, but I like Cincy’s chances if they stick with the running game. Bengals 27-24
Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4) Sunday 4:40 p.m.
The joke around the league has been in recent years that one could set their watch by Dallas spitting the bit and falling apart down the stretch. No one is laughing now. Dallas finished off a dominant December by going 4-0 and winning the NFC East while distancing itself from much ballyhooed foe Philadelphia.
The Lions won 11 games and have a potent, if very inconsistent offense to go along with the #1 rated run defense in the NFL. So something will have to give in this one.
The Cowboys have arguably the best offensive line in football and they run the ball with DeMarco Murray extremely effectively. Murray has rushed for 1845 yards and allowed Dallas to get away from those pass-happy situations in years past to allow Tony Romo to flourish in 2014. Romo led the NFL in QB Rating this season and with Murray opening up play action has had time to take his shots.
Dez Bryant had a big year for the Cowboys, catching 88 passes for 1320 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2014. He teams up with TE Jason Witten and WRs Cole Beasley, Terrence Williams and Murray (57 catches) out of the backfield.
Detroit dodged a huge bullet by having Ndumakong Suh avoid a suspension for stepping on Aaron Rodgers leg twice last week and by paying a fine instead. But the Lions secondary can be taken advantage of, provided Romo gets time to throw.
The Lions offensively will want to attack the Cowboys’ secondary. They did this last season with Calvin Johnson who had over 300 yards receiving. Johnson is the obvious mismatch here. Dallas’ defense wasn’t great this season but they are fast and athletic and have been much improved over 2013.
Look for Detroit to try to get Joique Bell much more involved this week, to control the clock and remain balanced. The Lions were known much more for their 4th quarter comebacks this season than for playing 60 minutes of good offensive football. Golden Tate is the guy that will have to have a big game this week for QB Matthew Stafford and the Lions. With Johnson receiving a lot of attention, it will be up to Tate to make some big plays for the offense.
Prediction: With a running game as potent as Dallas’, the Lions will try to sneak the linebackers and safeties up closer to the box. The Cowboys have to stick with the run here and remain patient…something until this season they’ve been loath to do.
Look for the Cowboys to spread them out and mix in the run with screens that will attack the Lions linebackers and then take some shots with Bryant in the deeper passing game.
Stafford will have to use everyone this week including TEs Brandon Pettitgrew and Eric Ebron and not make any mistakes. The Lions can ill-afford to give the Dallas offense a short field or allow them to get out front early at home. Dallas advances to a big matchup with the Packers next week. Cowboys 35-20
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