Patriots - Bills Regular Season Finale, Who Has the Razor's Edge? Key Matchups
 Rob Gronkowski as always will play a pivotal role in the Patriots offense against Buffalo. But he isn't expected to play the entire game on Sunday as the team will rest its starters. (USA TODAY Images) |
The New England Patriots return home for their final regular season game of 2014 as they take on the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. The game will be televised by CBS with the announcing crew of Spero Dedes and Solomon Wilcots on the call for the second week in a row. Kickoff at the “Razor” is scheduled for 1:05 p.m.
The Patriots (12-3) used a late partially blocked field goal to beat the New York Jets 17-16. Vince Wilfork got his hand on a 52 yard attempt by Nick Folk with less than five minutes left and the Patriots were able to run out the clock.
The offense struggled for much of the day but was able to muster enough points in the second half to secure the win. The victory coupled with a Broncos loss on Monday night has ensured home field advantage for the playoffs. The Patriots will not have to travel again unless they secure a spot in the Super Bowl.
The Bills (8-7) lost to the Oakland Raiders 26-24 on Sunday and ended their slim playoff hopes. Buffalo needed to beat both the Raiders and Patriots and get some help to get in the post-season. With the loss, the Bills frustration of post-season no-shows now stands at 15.
The Bills got pushed around at the point of attack on both sides of the ball and could only manage 13 yards rushing while the Raiders were able to muster 140 which kept the powerful pass rush of the Bills at bay
Series History:
The Patriots and Bills have been divisional rivals since the 1960 season and the rivalry has been marked with long winning streaks on both sides. But the recent history has been heavily on the side of the Patriots. Since 2001 New England has owned these matchups with a 13-0 record at home and a 12-2 record on the road.
New England has won the last six games the teams have faced including a 37-22 win in Buffalo back in October.
Here is a closer look at some of the PatsFans.com key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
Patriots RBs vs Bills Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Bills
The Patriots will be probably looking to run the ball more in the finale here than they have in the more recent games to neutralize the Bills pass rush. With LaGarrette Blount still dinged up, it is unknown at this time whether he’ll play, so we’ll probably see a lot more of Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden in this one with some Shane Vereen sprinkled in. The Patriots in the October matchup were only able to run for 50 yards on 27 carries, something they’ll be looking to improve upon.
Buffalo has the 11th best rush defense in the league, allowing an average of 105.8 yards per game. However with Marcel Dareus hurting, the Bills have allowed 431 in their last three games with a 4.8 yards per carry in those three contests.
Look for the Patriots to spread out the Bills with a three WR set look and attempt to hit some quick traps and draws up the middle to keep the chains moving and keep the pass rush from teeing off on the quarterbacks.
Patriots WRs vs Bills Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
In the first meeting back in October, Tom Brady carved up the Bills secondary completing 27-37 for 361 yards with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Rob Gronkowski all had over 90 yards in receiving as Brady spread the ball around hitting 10 receivers on the day.
Since that meeting Buffalo hadn’t given up more than 24 points until the game in Oakland last week. The Bills have one of the best pass rushes in football with 50 sacks and have three players with nine or more,(Mario Williams 13.5, Dareus 10, Jerry Hughes 9.5).
Last week the Patriots offensive line struggled against the Jets until the team went to a quicker passing game and used the up-tempo in an attempt to tire out the pass rush. With Tom Brady expected to play perhaps a half at the most, Jimmy Garappolo should see some significant time under center against an excellent pass rush defense.
Besides Dareus, CB Stephon Gillmore has been hurting and neither may be able to play which would limit the Bills defense. Look for Julian Edelman (if he plays) or Danny Amendola to be the recipient of the short crossing passes underneath to keep the chains moving. Garappolo had good chemistry with Brian Tyms in the pre-season, so look for him to get some significant playing time once Jimmy G. enters. Tyms had a 43 yard touchdown in the first matchup.
Bills RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Injuries to both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have rendered the Bills running game to mostly ineffective for the majority of 2014. Buffalo is only averaging 91.4 yards per game. Spiller did return from a fractured collarbone last week but was hardly 100 percent and rushed for -4 yards on just four carries. In the first meeting the Bills rush game was held to 68 yards on 23 carries.
The Patriots rush defense in the second half of the season has been much improved. Vince Wilfork’s return from an Achilles injury this season coupled with the signing of former Bills DL Alan Branch and Sealver Siliga returning from IR-Return has been huge for the defense. In the past seven games the Patriots defense has held opponents to an average of only 75.4 yards per game.
With Spiller far from healthy and perhaps age finally catching up to Jackson, it will be hard for the Bills to mount much of a rushing attack on Sunday. Look for Boobie Dixon to get more carries to mix things up for Buffalo.
Bills WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Buffalo has talent at the skill positions, rookie WR Sammy Watkins has been everything as advertised, and WRs Robert Woods and Chris Hogan along with TE Scott Chandler (who wishes he could play NE every week) give the Bills plenty of weapons in the passing game.
But the search for a QB will continue as Kyle Orton hasn’t been able to mount an effective enough passing game to get Buffalo over the hump and into a playoff position. The Bills drafted E.J. Manuel but he was benched and Orton was brought in and with all of those targets plus Spiller and Jackson out of the backfield, the Bills passing game is ranked 18th at only 230 yards per game. Worse, the Bills have the 31st ranked red zone offense in the NFL. In a game against New England, kicking field goals won’t win many games and they’ll have to remedy that moving forward.
The Patriots secondary is battle-tested with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner and the two have been outstanding in 2014. The Patriots may be without slot corner Kyle Arrington again which would be a loss. The big key will be the Revis –Watkins matchup and whoever covers Chandler who continues to torture the Patriots. Look for the Pats to be aggressive in coming after Orton. The Bills have allowed 34 sacks in 2014.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Patriots only get the slimmest margin of advantage here as Buffalo’s Special Teams have been playing outstanding as well. As we mention above, Wilfork’s block of a field goal last week was the fifth blocked kick on the season for the Patriots. Danny Amendola has been very good at running back kicks as has Edelman in the punt return game. Stephen Gostkowski (Pro Bowl nod) and Ryan Allen give the team an excellent 1-2 punch in the kicking game.
The Bills continue their always stellar play in the STs arena. Dan Carpenter has been outstanding hitting 6-8 field goals from 50+ yards. Punter Colton Schmidt has been solid and the Bills coverage units have been outstanding. Marcus Thigpen, picked up from Tampa has given the Bills an electrifying presence in the return game, returning a punt 76 yards for a score against the Packers.
Prediction:
With the Broncos loss coupled withthe Bills dropping to the Raiders last week, all of the drama has been taken out of this one on Sunday. It was shaping up to be a compelling matchup with the Patriots trying to secure homefield and the Bills trying to get a playoff spot. Instead both teams have nothing to play for and this one may resemble a pre-season game by the second half with each emptying out their bench.
The big question was this week if Bill Belichick would rest his starters and in typical Belichickian fashion answered that the team would do what they always do and that, “will be what’s best for the team.” Look for Brady and the starters, to play most of the first half. Especially on offense, with the Patriots getting off to woefully slow starts the past two weeks, Belichick will want to see them get the offense going early and show some rhythm before giving way to the backups.
Tough to gauge how Buffalo will come out as they probably won’t play with the intensity had they still had a sniff for the playoffs. There has to be a lot of disappointment on their sideline as well. It will be interesting to see if Manuel gets any playing time in this one, Orton isn’t the answer, and after spending a 1st round pick (16th overall) in the draft on Manuel, are they moving on from him as well? It would seem so but maybe they give him one more chance to show what he’s got.
Like a pre-season game this one will be a tough one to predict but we’ll err on the side of history here and say the Patriots hold serve at home 27-21.
Patriots Player to Watch- Brandon LaFell/Julian Edelman/Vince Wilfork
These three players are chasing milestones and/or bonus incentives. Edelman needs only 28 yards for his second 1000 yard season in a row. Which, if he plays he should reach easily. But there are bonus issues in play and with different scenarios, with the Patriots winning or Edelman getting 1057 yards receiving which would be more difficult, he could be up for another $500,000 bonus.
Wilfork gets a big bonus ($2 million) if he plays in 70 percent of the Patriots snaps on the season. He’s at 74 percent right now, so 10-15 snaps on Sunday should take care of that. Wilfork gets an addition $500,000 if the Patriots reach the divisional round of the playoffs….that is already done with the bye. If the team finishes in the top ten of scoring defenses in the league, he gets another $500,000. Right now the team is locked into the #9 scoring defense.
LaFell has perhaps the most difficult milestone as he needs a big day of 117 receiving yards to reach 1000 yards receiving for the first time in his career. While far from impossible, it is an improbable one unless he were to break a big play or two.
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