Patriots - Colts, Who Has the Razor's Edge?, Key Matchups
 Jamie Collins will be looked to play a big game, much like the Divisional Playoff game from last January. (USA TODAY Images) |
The New England Patriots travel to Indianapolis to renew their rivalry with the Colts on Sunday Night Football. This rivalry peaked during the Peyton Manning years but now with the addition of Andrew Luck to the Indy offense, the rivalry has been rekindled and will take place on the national stage. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks and are rested and prepared for a big game with large playoff implications.
The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC with Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth on the call. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m.
The Patriots (7-2) have won five in a row, mostly recently beating the Denver Broncos 43-21 two weeks ago. Tom Brady continued his recent hot streak where he’s thrown 18 touchdowns and just one interception.
The defense intercepted Manning twice and threw many different looks at the Denver offense which kept them off balance all game. Denver’s running game which netted 280 yards in New England last year, flopped and gained only 43 this time around.
The Colts (6-3) are also coming off of a bye week and have won six of their last seven. Two weeks ago they blew out the NY Giants 40-24 with QB Andrew Luck throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Luck has pass for more than 3000 yards in the team’s first nine games. He and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton have become a potent combo while leading the league’s most potent offense, averaging 32.1 points per game..
The Colts’ defense has the best third down percentage in the NFL (30.1 percent), and they’ve stiffened their run defense, coming in at 9th best in the NFL. They’re aggressive in the blitzing department with 2nd year LB Bjoern Werner rushing off the edge in the absence of Robert Matthis.
We here at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2014 to give a quick break down on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.
Series History:
The Patriots and Colts have met a total of 78 times dating back to the 1970 season. New England holds a commanding 48-29 edge overall including the playoffs. The Patriots have won the last four meetings including a 43-22 divisional playoff game last January in Foxboro.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
Patriots RBs vs Colts Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Colts
The Colts have the 9th best rush defense in the NFL allowing only 98.1 yards per game. Cory Redding, and Arthur Jones surrounding NT Josh Chapman have done a good job of limiting opponents running games.
But it is a tad misleading, since most of the Colts opponents are trailing most of the time and are forced to play catch-up. Opposing running backs are averaging 4.4 yards per carry which is exactly what the Patriots have allowed this season.
The Patriots have been struggling to run consistently this season, missing the big workhorse Stevan Ridley between the tackles. Shane Vereen is best suited to a third down back type role. Jonas Gray was activated off the practice squad and has played well albeit in a smaller role thus far.
The Pats can run on this defense, but they have to do so between the tackles, those long developing stretch plays will go nowhere on this defense. The Colts are good at stringing those out and holding the opponent to little yardage.
Patriots WRs vs Colts Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
Tom Brady has been on fire the past five weeks since the KC game. The issues along the offensive line have been remedied, Brandon LaFell is now more comfortable in the offense and most importantly, Rob Gronkowski has returned to full health.
In the past five games Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns against one interception. The Patriots during that stretch are averaging over 40 points per game and Gronkowski’s production has been off the charts. In the past two games, 19 targets, 18 receptions, 254 yards and 4 touchdowns.
As we said in our All-22 piece, Indy’s biggest weakness is the middle of the field in their pass defense. They’re solid outside with corners Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, but the Patriots should target down the middle and find plenty of room to make plays. And that includes both Gronkowski and fellow tight end, Tim Wright.
Colts RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Colts
The Colts offense has had good production from the running game utilizing a two-tiered running attack featuring Ahmad Bradshaw who is averaging over five yards per carry this season and Trent Richardson.
Bradshaw is the must-stop guy here, just a year removed from neck surgery he’s been outstanding both running and catching the ball out of the backfield. On a star-studded Colts offense, he’s one of the unsung players but is capable of making plays all over the field.
The Patriots run defense has been good in wins and woefully bad in losses. However in the past two games they held Matt Forte in check while the game was still in doubt and then Denver to a paltry 43 yards on the ground.
Expect a lot of nickel looks on defense again by the team in trying to slow down Luck and the passing game. Which means the Colts should be able to run.
Colts WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Wait….What you say???? New England has the advantage here? Yes they do, whether or not they can keep the advantage is a big question on how this game will ultimately turn out.
In the two previous meetings with Andrew Luck, (both in NE) the Patriots were good at forcing the ball out of Luck’s hands early and forcing turnovers. They registered four picks in the playoff game last January.
Luck has been outstanding thus far in 2014, passing for over 3000 yards and 26 touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton has been explosive, catching 56 passes for 937 yards, (16.7 ypc) and three touchdowns. But the big production guys have been TE Dwayne Allen (7 TDs) Bradshaw (6 TDs rec) and Coby Fleener (4 TDs).
Look for NE to mix up their coverages, and pass rush, they have to contain Luck in the pocket, if he can get to the outside and make plays with his feet, it will be a long evening. Jamie Collins will play a key role this week as he did in January’s playoff game. The key is limiting the Colts in the red zone, Luck is going to get his yardage, but a few FGs and a turnover or two will go a long way to winning this matchup.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Push
This will be a key area to watch as the Patriots STs units have really picked up their play. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been superb, his only FG this season occurring on a bad snap. Ryan Allen is turning in a solid season with a 46.0 yard average. Danny Amendola has given a boost to the Pats moribund kick return unit and Julian Edelman has been getting hot in the punt return unit with big returns against Chicago and Denver (84 yd TD).
The Colts are outstanding in both phases of the kicking game, Adam Vinatieri keeps plugging away into his 40’s and has been perfect on his kicks this season. Pat McAfee has been outstanding averaging over 46 yards per punt with a superb 43.3 yard net. The coverage units have been solid and it will be interesting to watch who gets the advantage here. In a closely matched game, STs may indeed decide the difference.
Prediction:
This one promises to be another Pats – Colts classic as both teams are playing well and are jockeying for a prime playoff position.
New England hasn’t been a good road team the past few years and this one could exorcise some demons for them. Indy has been very solid at home and the place will be loud on Sunday night.
With both offenses operating at a very high level, this one will come down to which defense is able to slow down the opponent enough. This Patriots secondary can be a difference maker if they put in the effort they played Denver with two weeks ago.
In a close game, Brady and Co. led by a big game by Gronkowski win a big one on the road over a good Indianapolis team, Patriots 34-26.
Patriots Player to Watch- Rob Gronkowski
This is a tailor-made game for Gronkowski, it is on the national stage, going in with a hot QB that is on fire lately and facing a team that has struggled all season to cover tight ends.
The Colts safeties don’t match up well at all with him, he has big size advantages over both starters, Sergio Brown and Mike Adams. The Colts linebackers struggle in coverage and if they choose to double-team him, it opens up other avenues elsewhere.
Look for Gronkowski to have a big game on Sunday night with at least one Gronk spike as Brady will take advantage of the Colts dependence on having to blitz to get pressure.
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
Listen to our Patriots 4th and 2 podcast on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.
