Patriots - Jets, Who Has The Razor's Edge, Key Matchups
[caption id="attachment_2321" align="aligncenter" width="534"]
The Patriots and Jets rivalry has always one that has been marked by physical, tough play. (USA Today photo)[/caption]
The New England Patriots return home to play their heated divisional rival New York Jets in another nationally televised game on Thursday Night Football. The game will be televised by CBS and will have their top announcing crew of Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on the call. Kickoff is slated for 8:25 p.m. Forecasts call for heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the evening. Former Patriot Ty Law will be honored at halftime, Law was inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame on August 1.
The Patriots (4-2) took care of business in Buffalo by defeating the Bills 37 - 22. Tom Brady was razor sharp in the second half enroute to a day with 362 yards passing to go along with 4 touchdown passes. The defense forced three turnovers and bottled up the Bills running game.
The only down point was on the injury front, the team lost LB Jerod Mayo and RB Stevan Ridley to season ending knee injuries. Dan Connolly was also forced to leave the game with a concussion.
The Jets (1-5) lost their fifth game in a row 31 – 17 to the Denver Broncos. The plan to limit Peyton Manning’s throwing lanes by dropping eight men into coverage and mixing up their looks was solid, but the defense eventually wore down as Manning tossed three touchdowns. The offense struggled to run and struggling QB Geno Smith tossed to pick-six to put the game away in the final moments.
The Jets also lost two players to season ending injuries on Sunday as CB Dee Milliner and G Brian Winters were placed on IR this week.
We here at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2014 to give a quick break down on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.
Series History:The two teams renew the Boston – New York rivalry for 111th time on Thursday night and the first of two meetings between the teams in 2014. They will meet in the Meadowlands in December. The teams split their meetings in 2013 with each holding serve at home.
The series has been remarkably close all-time since 1960 with the Patriots holding a slim 56-53-1 advantage. The Patriots hold a 30-25-1 edge at home over the Jets and since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, the Patriots hold a 20-10 edge overall.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
Patriots RBs vs Jets Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Jets
The Patriots had issues running the ball against the stout front of the Bills on Sunday, gaining only 50 yards on 27 attempts, good for only a 1.9 average. Now Ridley is lost for the season, and the Patriots will miss his physicality and toughness hitting the holes at the point of attack.
The onus will be on Shane Vereen, James White and Brandon Bolden to pick up the slack. Although they struggled, the team elected to remain committed to the run, something that will be important moving forward.
The Jets are always tough to run against and it always starts with a very good front seven. Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson are outstanding at stuffing the run and an active group of linebackers filling the holes will make the sledding tough.
The Jets however have allowed 162 and 138 yards rushing the past two games. With the weather slated to be what it is, we may see an increased reliance on the running game so this will be an interesting matchup to watch.
Patriots WRs vs Jets Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
For the first month of the season, the Patriots passing game was struggling badly. The pass protection was shoddy, Tom Brady’s accuracy was off and the receivers weren’t doing a great job of getting open. The past two weeks, we’ve seen nearly a polar opposite. Brady’s numbers the past two weeks against Cincinnati and Buffalo include 604 yards passing, 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Two big reasons for that include better protection by the offensive line and the health of TE Rob Gronkowski who is rounding into form as he continues his recovery from ACL surgery. Gronkowski was giving the Bills fits in the middle of the field, opening up other avenues for Brady to throw. Brady hit 10 different receivers on Sunday as he was finding a way to get everyone involved in the passing game.
Protection will be key here, as the Jets are always one of the best teams in getting after the QB. Calvin Pace, Wilkerson and Richardson all do a great job of getting after the QB. Rex Ryan is famous for his overloaded blitz schemes or showing that and then dropping seven or eight back into coverage.
The Jets secondary has been decimated by injuries this season and now the loss of Milliner looms large. The pass rush/protection matchup will decide who wins this one.
Jets RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Jets
The Jets have a very good 1-2 punch in the running game with Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson and have the sixth best running game in the NFL averaging over 121 yards per game. The Jets will want to get ahead or keep the game close as they’ll want to slow down the game and keep New England’s offense off the field.
Nick Mangold will be going against a revitalized Vince Wilfork once again as these two have done battle so many times in the past. It will be on Wilfork and Casey Walker to help slow down the Jets running game. With the loss of Jerod Mayo for the season and Dont’a Hightower still nursing a knee injury, the Jets will look to run the ball right at the middle of the defense.
Jets WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Geno Smith has been having a rough time of it in 2014, throwing only six touchdowns against seven interceptions. Having new WR Eric Decker miss time due to a balky hamstring hasn’t helped matters. Decker is finding the going tougher as well, he was essentially the third option in Denver and now he’s facing opponents top CBs. This week he’ll probably draw former Jet Darrelle Revis.
Smith will be looking a lot at rookie TE Jace Amaro this week, Amaro had 10 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown against Denver last week. After seeing Scott Chandler last week have a huge game against the Pats secondary, Smith will be looking to get Amaro involved early. A nice tidbit from Pats Pulpit’s Rich Hill, Jeremy Kerley has had four of his seven best games against New England.
The Patriots have been solid against the pass this season, the pass rush has been inconsistent but lodged five sacks against Kyle Orton last week. Revis is being utilized more to his strengths now and Brandon Browner should see his first action of 2014 this week. It will be interesting to see if the team matches him up with Amaro.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Patriots
Neither team is getting much running room in the return game but in the punt return game, Julian Edelman is due for a breakout game this season. The ever dangerous Edelman has come close a few times and this week may be the time to do so.
Both teams have solid kicking games; Nick Folk has made nine field goal attempts in a row and is always money. He’s yet to miss in 2014. Punter Ryan Quigley has an outstanding 48.1 average with a 44.6 net and has only three touchbacks.
New England counters with Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen in the kicking game. Gostkowski missed a field goal last week due to a bad snap but is always outstanding in field goals and pinning teams back with kickoffs. Allen is having a solid season averaging 46.1 yards per punt.
Prediction:
Like all of the games in the rivalry for the past 54 years, this one will be a physical, hard-hitting contest. These games are never for the faint of heart and this one will be no different.
The Jets always give the Patriots a tough time as Rex Ryan comes up with some good game plans to slow down the New England offense. But these are teams moving in opposite directions as the Jets are losing of five in a row while New England has won its last two games, scoring 80 points in doing so.
The Jets will have to get to Tom Brady in order to win this one; their secondary is too banged up especially on the perimeter to hold up for long. Look for the Patriots to try to work Gronkowski and Tim Wright inside to give more room for Edelman and Brandon LaFell to work outside.
The Jets will look to pound the ball inside and it will be an interesting matchup to watch. They’ll also look for Amaro to loosen things up for their other options in the passing game.
From a Patriots perspective a quick start is essential. There is a lot of frustration on the other side of the field. Getting out to an early lead will force the ball into Smith’s hands which is a win for New England.
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers….on what is guaranteed to be a wet, sloppy night, turnovers could turn this game. New England is a +9 on the season tied with Green Bay for the league lead. The Jets are -7 which is 29th. This one will be close for three quarters but the Patriots will hold serve at home, as Brady will be able to make enough plays to take it. Patriots 27-16
Patriots Player to Watch- Julian Edelman
With a resurgent Rob Gronkowski hauling in 13 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown the past two weeks, he’ll be getting a lot of attention (and rightfully so) by the Jets defense. But with the injuries to the secondary, the Jets corners will have to deal with Julian Edelman.
The weak point of their defense has been the depth at the CB position and Edelman will probably be Tom Brady’s favorite target on Thursday night. Look for Edelman to be the guy running the short, hot routes, especially early in this one as the OL will try to stem the pass rush of New York. With a healthier Gronkowski clearing out some room for Edelman, he should be the guy who should have the big game on Thursday night.
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
Listen to our Patriots 4th and 2 podcast on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.
