Patriots - Chiefs, Who Has the Razor's Edge?
 The Patriots will need to protect Tom Brady in their MNF matchup in KC much better than they have thus far in 2014. (USA TODAY Images) |
The New England Patriots travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden will have the call on ESPN in the nationally televised contest.
The Patriots (2-1) toughed out a 16-9 win at home over the Oakland Raiders with Rob Gronkowski scoring the game’s only touchdown on the afternoon. New England’s offensive line again had issues with protecting Tom Brady and the running game sputtered against a team that had been gashed by the run.
The defense held the Raiders to only 241 yards of offense and limited them to only three field goals. The Pats made the big stop at the end of the game when Vince Wilfork picked off a Derek Carr pass at the end of the game to seal the win.
The Chiefs (1-2) blew out the Miami Dolphins 34-15 on the road as Knile Davis filling in for an injured Jamaal Charles ran for 134 yards. Running back Joe McKnight chipped in with two touchdown receptions from QB Alex Smith.
The Chiefs defense sacked Ryan Tannehill four times and shutout the Dolphins in the pivotal fourth quarter although Lamar Miller gained 108 yards on the ground.
We here at PatsFans.com are continuing our “Razor’s Edge” column in 2014 to give a quick break down on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.
Series History:
The Patriots and Chiefs have met a total of 33 times with Kansas City holding a 17-13-3 edge overall. The Chiefs have a commanding10-3-1 edge over the Pats at home. The Patriots however have won the last two meetings including a 34-3 in 2011.
Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor’s Edge.
Patriots RBs vs Chiefs Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Patriots should have a slight edge here, and “should” hinges on the offensive line. The unit was not playing well until the coaches brought in rookie Bryan Stork at center and moved Dan Connolly over to right guard sitting Jordan Devey. The results then were a tad better.
The Chiefs have struggled to stop the run since losing DT Mike Devito as well as LBs Derrick Johnson and Joe Mays to injured reserve. KC is allowing 125 yards per game and 5.1 yards per rush. They’ll need NT Dontari Poe to get penetration to slow down and disrupt the running game as New England likes to run between the tackles.
The Patriots have had mixed results running the ball this season but with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen (average 119 yards per game) going against a depleted Chiefs defense, the runners should reach the second level.
The Patriots however are languishing near the bottom of the league (28th) in runs of 10 yards and over with only six thus far, a testament that the offensive line has struggled.
Patriots WRs vs Chiefs Secondary-Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Patriots passing game is scuffling along now due to issues with protecting Tom Brady. It has made Brady cut to three-step drops and look for only the receiver running the short route. Keeping the running backs in to chip outside pass rushers and swing tackle Cameron Fleming as an extra blocker at tight has helped somewhat.
The Chiefs can get after the quarterback with bookend excellent pass rushers in the form of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. They can disrupt the passing game and against a QB as immobile as Brady, that means trouble. But the Chiefs are thin in the secondary and with their best member, S Eric Berry hurting; they’ll have some holes in the coverage.
It will be up to the offensive line of the Patriots to hold the fort for Brady and allow Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and others time to get open. There will be opportunities for them to make plays but the protection which has been shaky will be the key here.
Chiefs RBs vs NE Front Seven- Razor’s Edge Chiefs
The Chiefs running game is the strength of their offense with Charles, Davis and even QB Smith who can scramble out of the backfield as threats every time they touch the ball. Davis filled in ably for Charles in Miami running for a career high 134 yards to spark the offense. Kansas City is averaging 124.6 yards per game and a good 4.2 yards per rush on the ground.
The Patriots rush defense has rebounded nicely after a horrible Week 1 showing and allowed only 54 and 67 yards the past two games and it starts with big Vince Wilfork up front. DL Sealver Siliga was hurt in the Oakland game and will probably miss this one. Setting the edge will be a big test for the Patriots defense regardless of whether Charles is able to go or not.
Chiefs WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor’s Edge Patriots
The Chiefs like New England has struggled to protect QB Alex Smith, and have given up 11 sacks already in 2014. As a result, Smith like Brady has had to check down in the short passing game. The Chiefs have WRs Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery outside the numbers but in this one, the Chiefs will probably look to the tight ends and RBs.
TE Travis Kelce has been a frequent target of Smith’s and has 10 catches for a nice 16.6 yards per reception. RB Joe McKnight had a big game last week with six catches for 64 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Charles if he can go is a big threat out of the backfield.
The Patriots pass defense has been solid thus far allowing only 166 yards per game and in this one, the edge rushers Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich will be key to pressuring Smith, something they were inconsistent on last week. Jamie Collins has been less than 100 percent and he’ll be needed in covering Kelce and fellow TE Anthony Fasano. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower will have his hands full with the RBs out of the backfield this week.
Special Teams- Razor’s Edge Push
The Patriots get the edge in the kicking game with the steady, solid Stephen Gostkowski having an advantage over rookie Cairo Santos. The Chiefs have the very solid punter Dustin Colquitt who has a good 45.7 average with six of his 12 punts inside the 20 yard line. The Pats Ryan Allen counters with a 46.1 yard average and six of his 15 punts inside the 20.
The return game favors Kansas City as McKnight, Davis and Frankie Hammond give the Chiefs solid returns in both the kick and punt units. The Pats have the always dangerous Julian Edelman in the punt return game but the kickoff return unit is still an area that needs an upgrade.
Prediction:
Playing at Arrowhead can be difficult for opponents as it is one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. In fact the Chiefs’ front office is on-record as saying that they’re hoping to break the record for the loudest stadium in NFL history on Monday night.
The easiest way to do that is to consistently move the chains and put up points. The Chiefs run defense lends itself to that scenario but the question is, can the Patriots offensive line rise to the challenge?
The Patriots have had a dearth of explosive plays this season and this would be a prime time (no pun intended) to start. This one will be close and probably low-scoring as both defenses to look to disrupt the other’s offense with pressure on the QB.
Turnovers may ultimately decide this one, something the Patriots have been good at this season at plus-six. The Chiefs are still looking for their first turnover of the 2014 season. This one won’t get style points by either team, but the experience of Brady and Belichick in close games gets the nod. Patriots eke out a close 17-16 win on the road.
Patriots Player to Watch- Tom Brady
While there can be little debate that the offensive line of New England has not played well enough for the first three weeks, Brady’s play has also left something to be desired as well. His accuracy has been off and he’s been very reliant, perhaps overly so on Julian Edelman to make plays.
Whether it is a combination of trust, or the other players' not making enough plays or Brady not looking in other’s direction enough is open for debate. What isn’t however is the fact that the team needs #12 to perform better as the 2014 season enters the end of the first quarter.
One area that has been mentioned often is that teams are beginning to focus their attention on stopping Edelman. Brady can make teams pay for that by using a simple pump fake, something he’s done well in the past.
A look at last week’s All-22 shows how on a second and five with 6:31 left in the fourth quarter, Brady had Edelman just beyond the sticks on the right side of the formation. Brady stared him down and the Raiders defense to a man raced to that point.
[caption id="attachment_2242" align="aligncenter" width="600"]
The Raiders key on Edelman leaving the middle wide open. (NFL All-22 film)[/caption]
A look at the film shows both Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell both running free down the seam for big gains, perhaps touchdowns. A simple pump fake by Brady is all it would take to pop a big gain.
In a game the Patriots should run effectively in, will bring the safeties inching closer to the line. That would lend itself even more to those big play opportunities. But it is up to Brady to make them work.
Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at [email protected]
Listen to our Patriots 4th and 2 podcast on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from PatsFans.com discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.
